Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1000
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 20:13:09

ACUS11 KWNS 122013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122012=20
TXZ000-122215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1000
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 122012Z - 122215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Very large hail (3+ inches) appears likely as
thunderstorms rapidly intensify this afternoon. Severe/damaging
winds and a couple of tornadoes may also occur. Watch issuance will
likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...A convectively reinforced outflow boundary/front has
stalled this afternoon across central TX. Strong heating has
occurred south of this boundary and east of a surface dryline. Ample
instability is present across the warm sector, with MLCAPE forecast
to continue increasing into the 2500-4000 J/kg range in the next
couple of hours. Very strong deep-layer shear is also present over
this region, with 50-60+ kt of effective bulk shear owing to
enhanced westerly mid-level flow. Supercells should quickly develop
no later than 22-23Z (5-6 pm CDT) near the surface triple point,
with an attendant threat for very large hail. Some of this very
large hail could be in excess of 3 inches in diameter due to the
very favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment. Due to
long/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels, some splitting of
supercells may occur, with left splits also posing a threat for very
large hail. Severe/damaging winds may also occur with convective
downdrafts. A narrow/focused corridor or tornado potential may also
exist near the stalled front/boundary layer, especially if any
supercells can remain anchored to the boundary as they move eastward
this evening as a low-level jet modestly strengthens. One or more
watches will likely be needed to address this increasing severe
threat through the afternoon.

...Gleason/Thompson.. 06/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_4MuQvKbsca7KTWMEzuhhXshSzbId3sdjHuxteKTOy7oe5ridLWQtMRC_9t6WItNCGv_jwiik=
uUIojQTEzXGscGs4QY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   31810036 32050029 32509986 33329894 33369810 33079750
            32469725 31699717 31229737 31099791 30999894 31039983
            31430021 31810036=20


=3D =3D =3D
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