Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0997
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 17:51:36

ACUS11 KWNS 121751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121750=20
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-122015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0997
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern CO into northeastern NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 121750Z - 122015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage/intensity should
occur this afternoon, with large hail and severe winds possible.
Watch issuance may eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...Modest low-level upslope flow continues across the
eastern CO and northeastern NM, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms ongoing. Surface temperatures remain fairly cool as of
1750Z, mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Even so, modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates emanating from the higher terrain of
the Rockies should aid in the development of around 1000-1250 J/kg
of MLCAPE early this afternoon. 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear is
being fostered by an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough and
associated southwesterly jet. A few supercells capable of producing
large hail up to 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Some upscale
growth into small clusters may also occur with time, with perhaps a
greater threat for occasional strong to severe wind gusts. The
somewhat limited thermodynamic environment casts some uncertainty on
the magnitude of the severe threat. Still, observational trends will
be monitored over the next few hours for signs of increasing
thunderstorm intensity, which may prompt eventual watch issuance.

...Gleason/Thompson.. 06/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_4OHkZCisejpGsdTaa8tq_lDt-Sups5RxkTgoz5t9Nm7IaNWVwKbP118503hVoQk0CfGnHVJi=
Zdqlxpo7InoUN7gTEU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36280502 37640500 39010511 39420443 39430349 39070300
            38500258 37650207 37090224 36820281 36430301 35750316
            35360395 35460495 36280502=20


=3D =3D =3D
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