Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0994
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 16:53:07

ACUS11 KWNS 121653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121652=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-121845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0994
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle into western OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121652Z - 121845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail may continue through
the early afternoon. Trends will be closely monitored, but watch
issuance will probably not be needed.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of elevated convection earlier this
morning, additional thunderstorms have recently developed across
parts of the TX Panhandle. This activity is likely being aided by
modest low-level warm advection centered near/above 750 mb. These
thunderstorms will remain elevated, well to the north of a surface
front draped across central TX. Still, around 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE should be present across this region with modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates persisting. Enhanced mid/upper-level flow
associated with a southern-stream jet is fostering 45-50+ kt of
cloud-bearing shear. This should support continued updraft
organization, with an elevated supercell or two possible. Isolated
severe hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter appears possible in the
short term, but this activity will probably tend to move into
western OK, where substantial convective overturning has occurred
earlier this morning. At this point, watch issuance appears
unlikely, as the overall severe threat should remain rather
isolated.

...Gleason/Thompson.. 06/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6LZGS3sk8y4dGietJmBRD228telEGudivaYdX2d-4-Gy1sjIGvtXo3UzhS-w3hA1UBoMxwL9Z=
n6-hH8v63kUtAKA9ow$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   35450227 35880222 36100142 36039976 35389904 35059934
            34990012 35160167 35240218 35450227=20


=3D =3D =3D
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