Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 15:04:20 AWUS01 KWNH 121504 FFGMPD OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-122100- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0469 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1102 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Areas affected...Central Rockies & High Plains Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 121500Z - 122100Z SUMMARY...An approaching vigorous upper level disturbance will help to initiate more thunderstorm activity capable of producing torrential downpours. Flash flooding is likely, especially in areas with overly saturated soils. DISCUSSION...Upper level RAP analysis depicts an upper low over southern Nevada with a vorticity maximum embedded within the diffluent left-exit region of a 250mb jet streak approaching the Central Rockies. Strong vertical ascent aloft is working in tandem with an environment featuring PWATs ranging between 0.75-1.0" east of the Front Range and MLCAPE >500 J/kg currently in place. RAP mesonalysis shows no CIN present, which is also denoted by the ongoing rounds of storms in parts of CO and northern NM. By mid-afternoon, MLCAPE should rise up to 1,000 J/kg and RH values at low-mid levels will remain in the 80-85% range on average. CAPE will take on a classic "skinny" profile as well, which is often observed with efficient rainfall producing storms. Area averaged 12Z HRRR soundings for early afternoon show winds along the Front Range will almost be uniformly out of the SW through the depth of the troposphere today. With persistent upslope present in some mountain ranges, training thunderstorms are anticipated in some areas with upshear Corfidi vectors as low as 5 knots in some locations. In the High Plains, low level winds will shift from easterly to southeasterly while SW flow aloft strengthens with height. This favorable vertical wind shear profile will help to sustain these storms for longer durations of time and could allow some storms to develop mesocyclones, especially in southern CO and northern NM. With well saturated low level profiles beneath the freezing level around 12,000', mesocyclones in an environment with up to a 6,000' deep warm cloud layer would be an ideal recipe for efficient warm rainfall processes. Much of the Front Range on east into the High Plains are quite sensitive given recent heavy rainfall over the past 7-14 days. MRMS 24-hour multi-sensor amounts showed as much as 5-7" of rainfall along and east of the Palmer Divide from last night's thunderstorms. 14-day AHPS precipitation analysis shows up to 600% of normal rainfall for portions of northern NM, the Denver and Fort Collins areas, and southern WY. Rainfall rates could approach 1-1.5" in 30 minutes in the strongest cells, and should hourly amounts approach 2", these values would surpass 1-3" FFGs.With more storms to come over such sensitive soils, flash flooding is likely in areas that have seen heavy rainfall in recent days, near burn scars, and in more urbanized settings. Mullinax ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6B9K0jQ57XryUwt5Fj9BuVQWi8tptgTCM4brQWEYfMdMaYsuJo7eZkzgAufnuS3baCAc= NdUOXfo73m8yPi5wPDzKLik$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...CYS...GLD...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41630459 40130306 38640227 37330244 36570293=20 36170374 36110467 36320529 36830548 37830552=20 38690554 39520599 40430612 41460602=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .