Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 11:01:15

AWUS01 KWNH 121101
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-121430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0468
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
659 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...TX Panhandle...Central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121100Z - 121430Z

SUMMARY...Repeating clusters of robust thunderstorms may lead to
areas of flash flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 satellite showed an organizing cluster of
strong-to-severe storms tracking along a WNW to ESE oriented
MUCAPE gradient stretching from the TX Panhandle to southern OK.
Southerly 850mb moisture transport is intersecting a low-level
front that, resulting in a steady source of lift that features as
much as 40-60 knots worth of effective bulk shear aloft. MUCAPE is
generally between 500-1,000 J/kg with PWs of 1.3-1.5" within the
highlighted region. These storms are moving at a fast clip, which
should limit residency time for individual storms to cause flash
flooding alone. However, RAP forecast guidance depicts the ongoing
southerly 850mb flow will continue to intersect the front, while
mean 850-300mb wind flow remains out of the west and parallel to
the front. So while storms may be moving fast, they may also
redevelop and train over similarly hit areas for several more
hours. This includes areas farther north from the front as well,
such as the I-40 corridor and the OKC metro area.

RAP guidance suggests the corridor of best deep layer moisture
flux convergence will reside just north of the Red River in
southern OK. MRMS multi-sensor 1-hr precipitation totals are
peaking around 1.5", which with training cells could lead to 3-hr
amounts eclipsing 3" in some areas. These values would challenge
3-hr FFGs, especially in western OK and just south of OKC.
Rainfall amounts could top 1" in 30 minutes in some of the most
intense cells. Western OK and the TX Panhandle feature the most
sensitive soils given portions of these regions have picked up
400-600% of normal rainfall over the past 14-days according to
AHPS. With redeveloping thunderstorm activity possible this
morning, flash flooding is a possibility in training segments of
thunderstorms. Locations with more saturated soils, in poor
drainage spots, and in urbanized corridors are most vulnerable to
possible flash flooding.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7ZtammE1MkWyCKK9qPMNb35LCxipHkOeFhNtc5ltNMm7BzXfuMRQhJdFbRDjfV0UIU4U=
CTdqoynEl1gfmRVPs0kOzUw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36100154 36029977 35819828 34989533 33799540=20
            33729683 34409898 34769988 35350145=20

=3D =3D =3D
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