Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0991
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 09:04:04

ACUS11 KWNS 120903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120903=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-121100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0991
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0403 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...far northeast NM...TX Panhandle...west-central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 272...

Valid 120903Z - 121100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into the
morning hours from the TX Panhandle into perhaps west-central OK.=20
Large hail is the severe hazard of concern.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a few intense thunderstorms from far
northeast NM east into the northern part of the TX Panhandle.=20
Water-vapor imagery indicates this region is downstream of a
mid-level low centered over southern NV and located beneath a
mid-level ridge axis.=20=20

Analysis of the KAMA VAD shows a strongly veering surface-3km wind
profile beneath 55-kt 6-km westerly flow.  This implies a focused
west-northwest to east-southeast corridor of frontal lift/isentropic
ascent, and short-term model guidance indicates this lift will
strengthen through the mid morning from the TX Panhandle into
southwest/west-central OK.  Additionally, the time-lagged HRRR shows
the current activity over northeast NM/TX Panhandle moving
east-southeast into western OK through the mid morning.  Given the
adequate elevated buoyancy/shear, it seems plausible at least a few
severe thunderstorms will probably continue beyond the expiration of
severe thunderstorm watch #272 at 10 UTC (5am CDT).  The existing
activity and potentially additional storms farther east will pose a
large hail risk.  The coverage of severe is still uncertain but an
additional severe thunderstorm watch is being considered.

...Smith/Guyer.. 06/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6GvC2RavtZDoaIvE3lRoS32olNAiLf2qgpyIi9wVKkSSfK55NGRlGi3ZHJ8dPXK7HgvKGbrIz=
9SO-UCufFWgLkJZUi0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36050430 36350418 36460394 36530336 35629881 35319844
            34839854 34729913 35900423 36050430=20


=3D =3D =3D
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