Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 08:52:36 ACUS48 KWNS 120852 SWOD48 SPC AC 120851 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ....DISCUSSION... A lingering mid-level short wave impulse digging through the Southeast on Thursday could still provide support for organized convective development across parts of southern Alabama/Georgia into northern Florida. However, the extent of the convective potential will depend on the convective evolution of the preceding days, which remains uncertain, but could include negatively impact the environment by Thursday. Otherwise, higher moisture content supportive of moderate to large CAPE likely will remain confined to Gulf Coast into the southern and central Great Plains late this week into next weekend, beneath and near the northern/eastern periphery of building mid-level ridging. Latest model output suggests that mid-level height rises might become suppressed across the central Great Plains into the lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau on Friday, by one or two short wave perturbations migrating around the periphery of the ridge. Given the available instability, it is possible that this could provide support for the evolution of one or two clusters of thunderstorms, which could persist or redevelop into the Tennessee Valley and adjacent portions of the Gulf Coast states early next weekend. However, the predictability of these largely sub-synoptic/mesoscale features is low in this extended time frame, and severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Later next weekend into early next week, medium-range models continue to indicate that amplified mid-level troughing will develop inland of the Pacific Coast. This could also be accompanied by at least some increase in severe weather potential across parts of the northern Intermountain Region and Rockies into the northern Great Plains. ...Kerr.. 06/12/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .