Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 07:08:05 ACUS03 KWNS 120707 SWODY3 SPC AC 120707 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing very large, damaging hail and severe wind gusts are possible across portions of the eastern Gulf Coast states Wednesday. ....Synopsis... Short wave developments appear likely to remain slowly progressive across much of North America through this period. One initially prominent embedded mid-level low may weaken more substantively Tuesday into Wednesday while redeveloping east of the lower Great Lakes through the Northeast. Broadly cyclonic flow around its southern periphery may generally remain in phase with broad mid-level troughing in the southern branch, across the lower Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic. Models indicate that this regime will remain seasonably strong in lower/mid-levels, as at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emanating from the Great Basin continue accelerating into and through it. It appears that higher moisture content air will remain confined to areas along and south of a remnant surface front/conglomerate convective outflow boundary across the eastern Gulf Coast states into parts of the southern and central Great Plains. The continued eastward advection of warm elevated mixed-layer air across the lower Mississippi Valley into the eastern Gulf Coast states may contribute to increasing convective instability. ....Eastern Gulf Coast states... Severe probabilities for Wednesday are tempered at least somewhat by low predictability associated with the smaller-scale perturbations progressing through the large-scale flow, and the unknown influence of the still uncertain convective evolution Tuesday through Tuesday night. However, latest model output suggests that the evolution of thermodynamic profiles increasingly conducive to large, damaging hail and severe gusts is possible by Wednesday afternoon, in the presence of seasonably strong deep-layer shear. Initial boundary-layer based thunderstorm development in the peak daytime heating may include isolated supercells and small upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating thunderstorm clusters which may persist into late Wednesday evening. ...Kerr.. 06/12/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .