Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 01:02:36

AWUS01 KWNH 120102
FFGMPD
TXZ000-120501-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0466
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
902 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Areas affected...north/central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120101Z - 120501Z

Summary...Intense, slow-moving convection has developed along a
stationary front generally along I-20 in north Texas.  Flash
flooding could result from this activity over the next several
hours.

Discussion...Intense, deep convection has materialized in earnest
across north Texas over the past couple hours.  These storms are a
bit more widespread in coverage than models earlier anticipated.=20
Most of the updrafts appear to be anchored near a stationary
surface boundary near I-20 and are in an environment characterized
by extreme buoyancy (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and westerly steering flow
aloft parallel to the initiating boundary. The flow aloft favors
localized training of convective cells from near Abilene eastward
across portions of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, and recent
MRMS data suggests that 1-2 inch/hr rain rates were already
materializing beneath a few of the storms in the past 30-45
minutes.

Observations suggest that storms may not move far from the
stationary surface boundary in the short term, suggesting a flash
flood threat for at least the next couple hours.  Weak low-level
flow and robust convective overturning suggest that eventually
cells will begin to take on a southward component of propagation
as cold pools mature/expand.  This process may lessen the flash
flood threat somewhat through the early overnight hours (after 03Z
or so).  Additionally, FFG thresholds are in the 1.5-2.5 inch/hr
range generally from Dallas/Fort Worth westward but increase a bit
with eastward progression toward the Piney Woods region.  With
FFGs expected to be exceeded on an isolated basis, current
indications are that an isolated flash flood risk will continue or
at least the next 3-4 hours until storms exhibit faster forward
motions.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4vxX5gOP6k2nF7fsuUa8sQ016aksqzp9fb6JNfPobA0UlWT4F8-IElxZlwraVVz5nI9v=
ioGyt9LNhZOQSYu9dPLcASI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...OUN...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33469635 33159539 32319501 31489526 30979688=20
            31079959 33199974 33409885=20

=3D =3D =3D
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