Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 01:02:27 ACUS01 KWNS 120102 SWODY1 SPC AC 120100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD EASTERN TENNESSEE... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected across a broad portion of the Tennessee Valley and Mid-South this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across the south-central High Plains and North Texas. ....Mid Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley.... Storms across the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys have started to congeal into a line. Thus far, hail has been the greatest threat from storm activity in this region, but expect the damaging wind threat to increase this evening given the linear storm mode and a downstream environment featuring 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-45 knots of effective shear. ....Central Texas... Numerous supercells have developed from near Abilene to the Metroplex with reported hail of 1 to 1.75 inches. Instability will continue through the overnight hours given low to mid 70sF dewpoints in the region which should support these supercells perhaps into the overnight hours. ....Southeast Colorado into the TX/OK Panhandles... Low level upslope flow combined with upper-level diffluence will provide adequate forcing for continued strong to severe thunderstorm development from northeast New Mexico into the TX/OK Panhandles into the overnight hours. Sufficient MUCAPE will remain to support the potential for supercells capable of large hail into the overnight and perhaps the early morning hours. Ongoing storms in the Texas Panhandle are stronger and more widespread than shown by most guidance and therefore adds some uncertainty. These storms are beneath the short-wave ridging aloft and south of the better upper-level diffluence which would favor weakening storms once the boundary layer stabilizes. However, as previously mentioned, elevated instability is abundant in the vicinity and could support this activity into the overnight hours. ...Bentley.. 06/12/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .