Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0985
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 00:42:57

ACUS11 KWNS 120042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120042=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-120215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0985
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Areas affected...central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270...

Valid 120042Z - 120215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270
continues.

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed
across central MS this evening.

DISCUSSION...Several severe thunderstorms are ongoing across
northern MS and eastern AR this evening. Large hail to golfball size
has been the main reported hazard with this activity so far. As
these storms continue to develop and shift southeast, they will
encounter strong instability (2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and effective shear
magnitudes around 35-40 kt. The 00z JAN RAOB showed steep midlevel
lapse rates greater than 7 C/km and an elongated hodograph,
indicating potential for severe hail will continue. With time, some
upscale development into bowing segments is possible. If this
occurs, damaging wind potential will increase as the band of
convection shifts south through at least 1 am CDT.=20

Severe thunderstorm watch 270 expires at 03z, but the threat severe
threat is expected to extend beyond that time, as well as further
east and south of the current watch. As a result, a new watch will
likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

...Leitman.. 06/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4apvFvY6vO5llpT89NGho4_3m76pbBHmjU8ITLiRzPBc8-JykghyUunD7xJOxPFRSbQI6ChSp=
GS1yC3SZOHIPqBjAoo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32968830 32268843 32028979 32099066 32409101 32869109
            33309102 33649091 33849041 33718833 32968830=20


=3D =3D =3D
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