Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 00:40:06

AWUS01 KWNH 120040
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-120638-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0465
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
839 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Areas affected...northern/central Mississippi, far eastern
Arkansas, and western Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120038Z - 120638Z

Summary...Scattered storms initially over Arkansas and western
Tennessee have increased in coverage.  Rain rates have also
increased slightly.  A few spots of excessive runoff/flash
flooding are possible through 0630Z.

Discussion...A cluster of scattered intense convection continues
to migrate southeastward across the eastern Arkansas and northern
Mississippi currently.  These storms are embedded in seasonably
strong flow aloft or June, with 45 knot flow at 500mb encouraging
30-40 knot storm motions.  These storm motions are fairly quick,
although the orientation of the convection was allowing for
localized training of cells and occasional rain rates peaking in
the 1-2 inch/hr range especially in southeastern Arkansas.=20
Appreciable low-level low (around 20 knots) was also maintaining a
very buoyant pre-convective airmass nearing 3000 J/kg MLCAPE per
SPC Mesoanalysis.=20

The instability and shear profiles are expected to support a
continued flash flood threat over the next 3-6 hours as storms
move southeastward into northern and eventually central
Mississippi this evening.  Furthermore, the orientation of cells
and linear segments will allow for continued, occasional training
and rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches/hr on a localized basis.=20
These rain rates could challenge local FFG thresholds
occasionally, especially north of US 82 across central/northern
Mississippi.  FFGs are slightly higher with southwestward extent,
suggesting an even more isolated flash flood threat in areas south
of US 82 and west of I-55.  The greatest threat over the next few
hours should exists with training cells that can move over areas
of lower FFG thresholds.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4U3jNDVwmD7xCH0IKdV1u2Y89qDVSoJxsaaygtBRwN6Vao1fJYXs7FerTiKfUCEiMpt-=
6asdJoTcW6QK1RB3j2hB0Qs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34998976 34928841 34668747 33928715 33028710=20
            32338768 31978952 32389121 34059188 34699171=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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