Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 12 2023 00:15:08 AWUS01 KWNH 120015 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120613- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0464 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 814 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Areas affected...central/eastern Colorado, northeastern New Mexico, a small part of the Texas Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 120013Z - 120613Z Summary...Ongoing convection across Colorado and far northeastern New Mexico should continue over the next 3-6 hours. Heavy rainfall is also likely near the Amarillo area over the next 2 hours. Flash flooding remains likely in these areas. Discussion...Convection across the discussion area has managed to mature and deepen within a distinct upslope flow regime across the discussion area. Low-level easterly flow has maintained enough instability (generally around 1000 J/kg across Colorado increasing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE across the Texas Panhandle) to sustain convective activity. Additionally, modest (25-35 kt) mid-level flow aloft has allowed for slow-enough storm motions to foster 2 inch/hr rain rates with isolated cells both southeast and southwest of Denver in addition to a southeastward-moving complex nearing the CO/NM/OK state border areas. A few spots of moderate to high-end MRMS Flash responses are noted beneath these cells.=20 Additionally, a separate cluster of splitting cells had materialized near the TX/NM border west-southwest of Amarillo, with spotty areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates (estimated per MRMS) noted even though storm motions are slightly faster in this area due to stronger mid-level flow. Models continue to suggest that areas of heavy rainfall will persist across central Colorado through the overnight hours as instability is maintained by low-level easterlies and weak ascent aloft continues due to upper difluence. Spotty areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates remain likely, and flash flooding could result especially near terrain-favored areas, burn scars, and in areas that are currently experiencing heavy rain. The longevity of convection in the Texas Panhandle is a bit less certain. Models that successfully depicted this convection tend to move it faster to the northeast and eventually weaken it, although strengthening low-level flow (perhaps increasing to 30-40 knots) may help with organization of ongoing cells through/after 02Z. Additionally, ongoing impacts from extensive rainfall/flooding over the past two weeks continues especially near the Amarillo area, and additional rainfall could exacerbate ongoing flooding. Flash flooding will remain likely in most of the discussion area through the early evening hours, with portions of Colorado and New Mexico likely to experience a more persistent threat through at least 06Z. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_znSOLsojCSwHE5OwvvVxBNdZr5FIl0hZYCVme7MtsNfDg9OXu8LpPVVCmkLa_UqVjTc= h7Hmuqd2muGBSc678s_CrO4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GJT...GLD...LUB...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40690587 40470465 39760337 38270252 36750190=20 35410104 34540098 34370276 35090489 37820684=20 39710704 40490641=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .