Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 11 2023 12:53:23 ACUS01 KWNS 111253 SWODY1 SPC AC 111251 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS/ARKLATEX AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected across a broad portion of the Tennessee Valley and Mid-South this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across the south-central High Plains and North Texas. ....Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and Mid-South/Southeast... A broad and appreciable severe thunderstorm potential will exist especially this afternoon into much of the evening across the region, largely influenced by a seasonally strong belt of cyclonically curved westerlies (generally 30-50 kt at 500 mb). Primary increase of anticipated severe thunderstorm development should initially occur within a moist/unstable environment near and just ahead of a southeastward-moving front through early/mid-afternoon, spanning northern Arkansas into much of Kentucky and Tennessee. A few mostly weak/transient supercells may occur, with some enhanced potential for severe hail. Storms should otherwise more prevalently organize into bands, supported by the aforementioned moderately strong winds (30-50 kt) in the 850mb-500mb layer. With relatively fast east-southeasterly storm motions expected, damaging wind gusts should become increasingly widespread through the afternoon. While storms will tend to weaken this evening across most of the Cumberland Plateau/central Appalachians, severe storms will continue well into the evening hours farther to the southwest, possibly evolving into multiple prominent southeastward-moving quasi-linear clusters across the ArkLaMiss and Tennessee Valley into Georgia. While these clusters will eventually weaken, some severe storms could reach near-coastal portions of the coastal Southeast during the overnight and early morning hours of Monday. ....North/Northeast Texas... Upper ridging and rising upper heights are generally expected across the southern Plains today, which will influence mid-level capping through much of the day. By late afternoon, ample heating/boundary layer mixing to the south of the primary front should allow for widely scattered thunderstorm development. In the presence of steep lapse rates, strong buoyancy, and strong high-level northwesterly winds, some intense supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds can be expected late this afternoon and evening. ....Eastern Colorado/Raton Mesa and South-Central High Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected across the Front Range vicinity this afternoon as heating contributes to moderate destabilization. The more intense/sustained storms are expected to evolve across southeast Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity through late afternoon coincident with the primary reservoir of post-frontal moisture and buoyancy in conjunction with 40+ kt effective shear. Large hail can be expected, and a brief tornado risk may exist as well. Storms should persist southeastward this evening into far southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles with some severe potential continuing tonight. ....Great Basin... As an upper low drifts northward toward/into the Great Basin, afternoon destabilization atop a deep mixed layer will result in development of high-based thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong, sub-cloud evaporative effects would suggest the potential for a few strong wind gusts with the northwestward-moving storms this afternoon and early evening. ...Guyer/Smith.. 06/11/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .