Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jun 11 2023 07:10:53 ACUS03 KWNS 110710 SWODY3 SPC AC 110710 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... Organized clusters of thunderstorms may develop and pose a risk for severe wind and hail Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the central Gulf Coast states. ....Discussion... Models suggest that short wave developments within the northern branch of the prevailing split mid/upper flow may become a bit more progressive during this period. As this occurs, it appears that a couple of persistent, broad and deep mid-level lows may undergo at least a slow eastward acceleration. While the lead circulation continues to progress away from the northern Atlantic Seaboard, the trailing one is forecast to make progress through the lower Great Lakes region. At the same time, models indicate that the increasingly deformed remnants of another low emerging from the Great Basin will accelerate more rapidly east-southeastward, into and through the confluent regime in the wake of the Great Lakes low. This will contribute to the maintenance of a seasonably strong belt of westerly/west-northwesterly flow (particularly in the 700-500 mb layer) across the southern Great Plains into the Southeast, along a remnant frontal zone. Seasonably moist air likely will remain confined to areas along and south of this frontal zone, which may become the focus for the evolution of one or two organizing clusters of storms. While it still appears that this moisture, beneath a plume of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, might contribute sizable mixed-layer CAPE, guidance is suggestive that the influence of outflow from prior convection may prevent this from being widespread. Although now a little more uncertain, based on NAM guidance, it still appears that a weak surface low along the frontal zone across north central into northeastern Texas by late Tuesday afternoon may become a focus for one notable area of organized convection. This may include an initial supercell to upscale growing cluster evolution, posing a risk for large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Kerr.. 06/11/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .