Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0969
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 10 2023 23:43:19

ACUS11 KWNS 102343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102342=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-110045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0969
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...northeast New
Mexico...southwest Kansas...the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the
far northern Texas Panhandle.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 102342Z - 110045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Several supercells are expected to persist through the
evening with a primary threat of large hail.

DISCUSSION...A combination of left and right moving supercells have
developed across southeast Colorado into the northern Texas
Panhandle. Upslope flow is around 1 to 1.5 km deep in this area (per
PUX VWP) which is likely responsible for the stronger storms than
farther north across northeast Colorado. With MLCAPE around 1000
J/kg and effective shear around 30 to 35 knots per SPC mesoanalysis,
expect the supercell threat to persist through the evening. If these
storms remain discrete/semi-discrete, they will likely weaken during
the late evening as they move east of the low-level upslope flow.
However, if storms can congeal into a cluster, they may persist
further into southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma during the
overnight hours. Most guidance shows little to no low-level jet this
evening which will be a significant limiting factor to robust
upscale growth during the late evening hours. Therefore, a continued
threat for isolated hail waning by late evening appears to be the
most likely scenario.

...Bentley/Hart.. 06/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4pSlvkIiZFoDVmn5E4y6ad8wHU0CbP0PHuc9lm8avHtgng-prBVPieDNyFVO17Q88vWvipKWx=
RqcorumWP-qU6_snR4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37970402 38300391 38250236 37490118 36460087 36100115
            35980181 35910247 36050305 36230343 36980394 37970402=20


=3D =3D =3D
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