Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 10 2023 21:58:43

AWUS01 KWNH 102158
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-110357-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0460
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Areas affected...central/east Texas and far southwestern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102157Z - 110357Z

Summary...Deep, slow-moving convection continues to pose a flash
flood risk over the next 3-6 hours.

Discussion...A band of deep convection continues on the northern
and eastern periphery of a strong mid-level low over central
Nebraska.  These storms continue to move slowly (around 15-25
mph), with localized backbuilding and training continuing to
foster spots of 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates.  These storms continue
to fall outside of the FFG maxima located in the Sand Hills, with
local exceedence of FFG (generally 1-1.5 inch/hr thresholds)
continuing beneath slower-moving and backbuilding storms.  Spots
of moderate MRMS Flash responses were also noted with the cluster
of storms near Auburn, NE recently.

The 12Z HREF continues to have a decent handle on ongoing
convection.  It, and current observations/mesoanalysis suggest
that heavier rain will continue through 03-06Z in a couple of
areas - downstream of intense convection in eastern Nebraska
(eventually spreading into western Iowa and perhaps far
southeastern South Dakota) and just ahead of the mid-level low
across south-central South Dakota near/just north of Valentine,
NE.  While the HREF depicts somewhat lower rain rates over time,
individual backbuilding clusters may still produce 2-3 inch/hr
rain rates at times especially in western Iowa through the early
overnight hours.  These rates are sufficient for occasional flash
flood instances through 06Z or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5BBrdRYM4wlYbZTnkD7W2Hubu4dbTzkcCDMliuKrmdr0TIytPn6mC4xUErcVBc4UO_ab=
uhxeRAWZlnghQdHiwQ02Kmg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33099751 32979673 32609544 32349421 32009293=20
            31389231 30609223 30269260 30059399 29879567=20
            29999671 30939748 31949771=20

=3D =3D =3D
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