Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0966
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 10 2023 21:46:18

ACUS11 KWNS 102146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102145=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-102245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0966
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Areas affected...northeast Colorado...far southwest Nebraska...and
northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 102145Z - 102245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and shift
east/southeast across the northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska
Plains into northwest Kansas this evening. Sporadic strong gusts and
hail are possible.

DISCUSSION...Convection has developed near higher terrain in the
I-25 corridor in central/north-central CO this afternoon. Surface
dewpoints are generally in the 50s, limiting stronger
destabilization, but steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to
MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. This should be sufficient to sustain
at least briefly strong updrafts as storms shift east/southeast.
Vertical shear will be a limiting factor in a more widespread/better
organized severe threat, with 0-6 km bulk shear only around 15-20
kt. Nevertheless, strong heating has allowed low-level lapse rates
to become very steep. Given adequate instability/shear for at least
briefly intense cells, the deeply-mixed boundary-layer may support
strong downdrafts. Hail may also briefly be possible with the more
intense cores.

As convection percolates east through the evening toward southwest
NE/northwest KS, some consolidation/organization along outflows is
possible. This could result in some increase in severe gust
potential after 00z. However, confidence in this evolution is
somewhat low.  While a severe thunderstorm watch does not appear
necessary in the short term, convective trends will be monitored
into this evening.

...Leitman/Hart.. 06/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6JD3IKg_ADzENh32-tW9oS7W0KzB6daPqW77GfnwBKb5f_OrZtqs6wqopwr1UmgMnn8ft0C0J=
8mtndNMj5-LVM75XgE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41160212 40450105 39660063 39350071 38800123 38480217
            38470377 38550425 39250455 40310479 40770459 41130397
            41240292 41160212=20


=3D =3D =3D
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