Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0965
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 10 2023 20:10:19

ACUS11 KWNS 102010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102009=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-102215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0965
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Arkansas...northern
Louisiana...and western Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 261...

Valid 102009Z - 102215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat continues especially at
the southern end ahead of slow-moving MCS.  A local extension of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261 may be needed in Louisiana, but the
need for a downstream watch is uncertain at this time.

DISCUSSION...An MCS that evolved across Oklahoma overnight has
continued sagging slowly southeastward through the morning and early
afternoon.  The southern end of the line has a history of producing
damaging winds and poses the greatest short-term severe threat.=20
Weak flow/shear will likely limit the overall organization of the
convection.  Nevertheless, unstable and moist conditions ahead of
the MCS will support the threat of wet microbursts capable of
producing isolated damaging winds.  If storms show signs of better
organization/clustering, then a downstream watch may be considered.

...Jirak/Thompson.. 06/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-br1EGpQ6w2kD7-4x3GkZ6nRRQFuEbQY9fCRrPu6wRSZECp3MOwdejPEqeRaNXsFV_8EWarZ7=
XqWyg8ilLL6Cy7WNGs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31739424 32479289 33229201 34309137 35319099 35489043
            35048976 34098952 33178966 32319014 31729064 31269132
            31069178 30969362 31739424=20


=3D =3D =3D
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