Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 10 2023 20:05:10

AWUS01 KWNH 102005
FFGMPD
MTZ000-WYZ000-110003-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0459
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Areas affected...southern Montana, northern Wyoming

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102003Z - 110003Z

Summary...Continued, occasionally heavy precipitation should
continue for at least a couple more hours this afternoon.=20
Localized flash flooding is possible in this regime.

Discussion...Low-level easterlies are maintaining an upslope
regime across southern Montana and northern Wyoming this
afternoon.  This upslope/terrain-forced convergence and weak
buoyancy continued to foster scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity across the region. Flow fields aloft are fairly weak (<10
knots), allowing for very slow storm motions and locally heavy
rainfall.  Rates have eclipsed 1 inch/hr at times, and rainfall
has occurred over areas of very wet soils and 0.5-1.0 inch/hr FFG
thresholds, supporting flash flood potential. A few spots of low
to moderate MRMS Flash responses have also been noted over the
past hour.

The ongoing regime should continue for at least another couple of
hours, although a couple of factors suggest that the threat of
additional heavy rain should be on the wane through the evening
hours: 1) continued advection of drier, more stable low-level air
across much of eastern Montana toward the discussion area and 2)
convective overturning and stabilization within an airmass already
exhibiting weak buoyancy.  Precipitation rates should lessen with
time especially after 22-23Z today, resulting in a gradually
lessening flash flood risk.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-RLNNR3r6Qd7vWtVn4SpzRD6PeEef1zpy4TOXxdkxBylEqqy14j21zSw5jKMFRbj9T1E=
DvLqUwDfnNcGoXD-DaJ_XZw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...CYS...GGW...RIW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   47080839 45860715 43970639 42970640 42400692=20
            42720789 44500943 45621031 46491103 47051024=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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