Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 10 2023 17:31:46 ACUS02 KWNS 101731 SWODY2 SPC AC 101730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM AR INTO LOWER OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Arkansas into and lower Ohio Valley and Middle Tennessee Sunday afternoon and evening. Some strong to severe storms are possible from southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening. ....Synopsis... A somewhat active upper pattern (by mid-June standards) is anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to drop southward into the Upper Great Lakes, encouraged southward by a shortwave trough progressing through its southern periphery across the Mid MS, OH and TN Valleys. Expectation is for this shortwave to be over the central/southern Appalachians by early Monday morning. Surface low associated with this system will likely be centered over the St. Louis vicinity early Sunday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across central MO and central OK to another low in northwest TX. This cold front is forecast to push southeastward throughout the day, as the surface low moves northeastward across the OH Valley. By 00Z Monday, expectation is for this cold front to stretch from the low in southern OH southwestward across western KY through the Mid-South and Arklatex to another low over north-central TX. Farther west, an upper low initially over the southern CA coast will likely track northeastward across southern CA and southern NV. As it does, a shortwave trough is expected to rotate through its western periphery into the Great Basin. Additionally, strong mid-level flow associated with this low will spread eastward through the Southwest and southern High Plains. ....Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South into the OH/TN Valley and Southeast... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the Mid MS Valley early Sunday morning, in the vicinity of the surface low. General expectation is for storm intensity and coverage to gradually increase throughout the afternoon as the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches, encouraging the surface low northeastward and its attendant front southeastward. Moderate air mass destabilization is anticipated ahead of the front from central AR into western/middle TN. Shear will be modest, but sufficient for a few more organized multicell clusters. Steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the risk for damaging gusts, with a few updrafts likely strong enough to produce hail as well. Less destabilization is expected farther north across the OH Valley, but increased shear and ascent near the surface could still contribute to gusty winds with more robust storms. ....Central/Southern High Plains.. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of CO Sunday afternoon. Mean westerly flow will likely push these storms off the higher terrain into the adjacent plains, where moist post-frontal, easterly flow is expected. Veering wind profiles will contribute to moderate vertical shear, and the potential for a few supercells capable of all severe hazards. ....Great Basin.. Thunderstorms coverage is expected to increase during the afternoon as ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough moves through the modestly buoyancy air mass over the region. Steep low-level lapse rates will be in place, with modest mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures responsible for the buoyancy. High cloud bases and a few stronger updrafts may result in a few stronger downdrafts within this well-mixed environment. ....North TX into the Arklatex... A more conditional risk for an isolated severe storm or two is anticipated as the air mass recovers ahead of the approaching front. Warm and dry mid-levels from preceding convection may prevent deep convection, but there is some chance there is enough heating to remove this inhibition. If storms do develop, the overall environment should support supercells, with large hail as the primary threat. ...Mosier.. 06/10/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .