Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 10 2023 17:19:09

AWUS01 KWNH 101719
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-102230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0457
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
118 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Areas affected...Southern SD...Northern NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101715Z - 102230Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms containing downpours and rainfall rates up
to 2"/hr may result in additional areas of flash flooding this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The current batch of thunderstorms have developed
along and just north of a passing cold front. RAP mesoanalysis
shows >500 J/kg of MLCAPE and PWs of 1.25-1.4", which is above the
90th climatological percentile. This is partially due to a healthy
surge of 925-850mb moisture transport coming from the Northeast.
HRRR area averaged soundings show low-mid level RH values between
85-90% and the available CAPE in the form of a classic "skinny"
CAPE sounding. Mean cloud layer (LCL-EL) winds are also <10 kts,
which is indicative of the slower storm motion in northern NE.
MRMS instantaneous rainfall rates were in excess of 2" and 1-hr
MRMS multi-sensor rainfall totals just east of Valentine, NE were
above 2.0". Valentine Airport also measured 1.46" of rainfall
between 16-17Z. The cell near Valentine managed to develop a
meso-low that helped enhance the environment to produce excessive
rainfall rates.

With the stronger trigger in the form of a passing cold front,
additional storms look to form and may contain similar excessive
rainfall rates to the cells near Valentine. Streets and low lying,
poor drainage areas are most at risk to possible flash flooding
this afternoon.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8MBBAgr4vmui2V3lzWZpKI4FR7oNmAjLBEBqv26z3BhzO7YnXUHNuEfuj9xwlnpLCAO5=
09-PdYm3LqhkxV1r1tRn6os$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44009792 43779763 42989823 42419931 42320078=20
            42580198 43320277 43960236 43790176 43720092=20
            43769998 43889901=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.