Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0963
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 10 2023 15:14:44

ACUS11 KWNS 101514
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101514=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-101745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Areas affected...northeast Texas...far southeast Oklahoma into the
Arklatex region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 101514Z - 101745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms approaching the Arklatex may gradually increase in
intensity throughout the day, with locally severe gusts and
marginally severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Strong storms currently extend from far southeast OK
into northeast TX, with an outflow boundary trailing westward across
northern TX. To the east, a diffuse boundary also exists from
southern AR into northwest MS in association with outflow from
overnight convection. Measured winds associated with the current
storms have generally been weak at 25-35 kt.

Latest storm trends indicate slow strengthening and deepening of the
updrafts, with small hail cores evident as well. Given further
destabilization of the moist air mass today, further strengthening
of this small MCS cannot be ruled out. While shear is weak, good
PWAT values over 1.50" along with MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg may still
yield a forward propagating severe complex capable of damaging gusts
and marginal hail.

...Jewell/Thompson.. 06/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!42x3FaY_kJv5LuvJmEBIURzxPONF3VkmVh0YZXcQ2PqDzPSjsKrcA4A7an6jLUEb12s8zOvGl=
u2_Jiz2LH5nn5iiS34$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   33269574 33489536 33659509 33949481 34139431 34199391
            34039327 33739260 33069238 32439254 31979286 31809352
            31849416 31979492 32259544 32499575 33269574=20


=3D =3D =3D
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