Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 10 2023 13:01:43 ACUS01 KWNS 101301 SWODY1 SPC AC 101300 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH/EAST TEXAS AND ARKLATEX VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across northern/eastern Texas and southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley. ....North/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A modestly organized but broad MCS exists across Oklahoma early this morning, with southern peripheral outflow in vicinity of the Red River. A few stronger/locally severe storms will remain a possibility early today across southern/eastern Oklahoma toward the ArkLaTex vicinity. Some rejuvenation of the MCS may occur into this afternoon east-southeastward toward the ArkLaMiss as the boundary layer warms/destabilizes, with severe hail/wind a possibility. Potentially more intense/initially isolated development is anticipated later this afternoon across far southern Oklahoma and north/central Texas near the modifying early day outflow, and in vicinity of the surface trough/dryline across Texas. Scenario will also be influenced by an eastward-moving mid-level wave, which will lead to modest mid-level cooling and strengthening mid-level winds. Within the aforementioned corridor, strong buoyancy and 30-40 kt effective shear will support initial intense supercells. This will include potential for very large hail, and probably some tornado risk, even with modest strength 0-1 km shear/SRH. With time, storms will likely tend to cluster with resultant upscale growth into one or more forward propagating clusters across central/east Texas by early evening. Damaging wind potential may increase accordingly, including the potential for wind-driven hail. ....Central Plains... A diurnal increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is anticipated this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms near a south/southeastward-moving cold front and within a post-frontal regime in vicinity of the Front Range and adjacent High Plains. While flow aloft will remain rather modest, a few stronger storms may prove capable of producing severe hail and severe-caliber wind gusts on an isolated basis, as storms generally move east-southeastward across the region. ...Guyer/Smith.. 06/10/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .