Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 10 2023 10:53:05

AWUS01 KWNH 101052
FFGMPD
OKZ000-101430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0455
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
652 AM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Areas affected...Central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101050Z - 101430Z

SUMMARY...A few hours of training thunderstorms along I-40 and
near and over the OKC metro area may result in flash flooding this
morning.

DISCUSSION...A healthy MCS continues its journey east through the
heart of the Sooner State this morning. The MCS continues to be
driven by a cold pool and resulting meso-high just northwest of
the main line of convection as the lead outflow boundary races
south and east. RAP mesoanalysis depicted 1,000-2,000 J/kg of
MUCAPE present as well as PWs of 1.5-1.6" over central OK. RAP
mesoanalysis also showed 20-30 kts of WSW 850mb flow that was
intersecting the outflow boundary, acting as both a source of lift
and healthy inflow to the trailing line of storms stretching as
far west as the TX Panhandle. MUCAPE should continue to become
exhausted as these storms work their way east, but there are still
a handful of storms out towards Elk City and Weatherford that look
to track across the OKC metro area over the next hour or two. One
wildcard to watch is a line of storms in northwest OK that have
developed along a surface convergence zone. These storms may also
work their way ESE towards central OK this morning.

Hourly rainfall rates have peaked around 1"/hr according to the
1-hr maps from Oklahoma Mesonet, and MRMS CREST max unit
streamflows are steadily rising over the OKC metro after the first
wave of storms. Hourly rates may approach 1.5" at their peak. It
is possible flash flooding may occur in central OK over the next
few hours, especially in poor drainage areas and in more urbanized
settings that contain a higher concentration of hydrophobic
surfaces.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_OUtQYWDsJEBoGKsVnFMGvbY7loMGKK2Ywxef3x7i2qQ7FAB9--lzouXEyWdCUSQVzU3=
Oz_h-mjeGTSb7EkRxpWXVOE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35889723 35779677 35529667 35109676 34939728=20
            34979771 35109815 35369810 35649816 35879780=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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