Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 10 2023 08:53:42

ACUS48 KWNS 100853
SWOD48
SPC AC 100851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Mid/upper flow across and east of the Mississippi Valley appears
likely to remain at least broadly confluent through mid to late
week, even as an initially deep mid-level low finally begins to turn
across and east/northeast of the lower Great Lakes region and
weaken.  As a result, one or two short wave perturbations emerging
from a weakening mid-level low over the Great Basin this weekend,
probably will tend to remain low in amplitude or weaken while
progressing around broad mid-level ridging over the southern Great
Plains into lingering mid-level troughing across the Southeast
through the work week.

In response to these developments, seasonably moist and unstable
boundary-layer air, initially confined along and to the south of a
remnant frontal zone extending from the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity
into the southern Great Plains, may return a bit farther inland.
Beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates, it appears possible that
this air mass may contribute to an environment supportive of
organized convective development across parts of the southern Great
Plains by late Tuesday afternoon, aided by mid-level forcing for
ascent associated with the lead impulse emerging from the west.
This may include an initial supercell to upscale growing severe
thunderstorm cluster evolution, near a weak surface low and
front/convective outflow boundary across parts of north central
Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and the Ark-La-Tex through Tuesday
night.

As the lead perturbation progresses east-southeastward into the
Southeast, probably followed by another similar short wave impulse,
organized severe weather potential remains more unclear Wednesday
into Thursday, and will likely be impacted by sub-synoptic/mesoscale
developments with low predictability in this extended range.

Late this week into next weekend, the large-scale pattern across the
eastern Pacific into North America may undergo amplification,
including building large-scale mid-level ridging across the
Rockies/Great Plains and digging mid-level troughing across the
Southeast, with little appreciable signal for organized severe
thunderstorm development currently evident.

...Kerr.. 06/10/2023

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