Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jun 10 2023 07:11:41 ACUS03 KWNS 100711 SWODY3 SPC AC 100710 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST...PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard through parts of the Gulf Coast and southern Great Plains, into the the Colorado Front Range, Monday afternoon and evening. Some of these may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. ....Synopsis... Models indicate little change to the prevailing mid/upper flow Sunday into Monday. A deep cyclone may shift a bit farther offshore of the Canadian Maritimes, with trailing mid-level ridging becoming a bit more prominent ahead of a significant upstream low, which is forecast to remain centered near/just west of the lower Great Lakes vicinity. The southern Great Basin low appears likely to weaken further, with one emerging perturbation progressing across the Colorado Rockies. In general, some further strengthening of mid/upper flow is forecast around the northern periphery of ridging across the Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains, and the southern periphery of the downstream cyclonic flow, across the lower Ohio Valley and Mid South into parts of the Southeast. As an occluding surface cyclone associated with the Great Lakes low migrates north/northwest of the lower Great Lakes region, models indicate that a trailing cold front will advance east of the Appalachians and across much of the Atlantic Seaboard by late Monday night. It appears that this will precede the more prominent perturbations pivoting around the mid-level low closer to its center. Across the lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Plains, the front will stall beneath the mid-level ridging. Despite the mostly weak/uncertain forcing for ascent, moderate to large CAPE may develop in a corridor along and/or ahead of the front, as well as within a lingering narrow corridor to the east of the Colorado Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains by late Monday afternoon. This may provide support for widely scattered strong thunderstorm development. In the presence of at least modest deep-layer shear, some of these could organize and pose at least some risk for severe wind and hail, before weakening as boundary-layer instability wanes Monday evening. ...Kerr.. 06/10/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .