Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0961
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 09 2023 21:14:09

ACUS11 KWNS 092114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092113=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-092245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023

Areas affected...The Texas Panhandle and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 092113Z - 092245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible this evening
across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...While most CAM guidance, other than the NAM, mixed out
dewpoints across the Texas Panhandle today, it has not materialized
with upper 50 to low 60s dewpoints across much of the Texas
Panhandle. As a result, 2000 J/kg MLCAPE has developed across the
region with only weak inhibition, per SPC mesoanalysis. A few storms
have developed along a dryline from near Clovis to north of Lubbock
with some additional towers observed beneath the cirrus plume. A
broad region of ascent will continue to overspread this region
through the evening which could help aid in storm development. If
sustained updrafts can develop, supercell organization is possible
with with around 40 knots of effective shear. These supercells will
have a primary hazard of large hail, but a greater damaging wind
threat could develop if more scattered development occurs and they
consolidate into a linear segment.=20

Would expect the threat to remain too isolated/short-lived for a
watch, but if the severe threat becomes more widespread or shows
signs of being longer lasting, a severe thunderstorm watch may be
needed this evening.

...Bentley/Hart.. 06/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6wl3mx4cTw49jfksbFJDXIAIMeswd0aYu9YKw8fc1POkLj9Vwrj-Mai_UYSHw0wDEaZP64Q60=
bfKRd9yXDWEMLwO8IQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33500128 34300211 34670312 34960370 35540420 36560284
            36630102 35639979 34549950 33819946 33369957 33110004
            33500128=20


=3D =3D =3D
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