Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0957
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 09 2023 18:37:39

ACUS11 KWNS 091837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091837=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-091930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0957
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023

Areas affected...+-Northern FL and far southern GA and AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091837Z - 091930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of gusty winds are possible this afternoon
across northern Florida and far southern Alabama and Georgia. A
watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed along a boundary across
northern Florida. Mesoanalysis indicates these storms are in an
environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy (2000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) and weak shear. Given the weak deep-layer shear, single- and
multi-cell modes are expected with some clustering of convection
with time. This may lead to storms with high precipitation loading
and wet microbursts with a few damaging wind gusts. Storms are
expected to persist for the afternoon until the loss of diurnal
heating this evening. However, given the expected sparse coverage of
gusty winds, a watch is not anticipated.

...Supinie/Thompson.. 06/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9vg_TWuGnFplCrdWG8TIN4JOrOmh7azKJl-ydt_sDYI49-oSmRFMZRFlvoqWTl0hTb4sWBWlh=
ymqQXP6YgvGS62KfEw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   29058163 29058260 29158306 29178312 29588430 29678507
            29828563 30058631 30258726 30418778 30508809 30818805
            30988773 31088740 31028690 30958635 30858384 30898221
            31138161 31228125 30878100 30318076 29678068 29178096
            29088104 29058163=20


=3D =3D =3D
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