Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 09 2023 12:48:40 ACUS01 KWNS 091248 SWODY1 SPC AC 091247 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing gusty winds and large hail are expected late this afternoon and evening from eastern Colorado into the southern Plains. A few strong wind gusts and marginal hail will also be possible across southern Georgia and northern/eastern Florida. ....Southern/Central Plains... A lee trough will persist across the High Plains beneath a weakening upper ridge, with a moist air mass persisting across the southern Plains. Eastern Colorado/Raton Mesa vicinity will be a favored corridor of thunderstorm development this afternoon, with other more isolated storms expected late this afternoon across parts of the west Texas Transpecos as well as the Big Bend vicinity. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible as these storms develop and mature. A modest strengthen low-level jet should allow storms to modestly organize and persist east-southeastward this evening into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and southwest Kansas/western Oklahoma within the moisture and instability gradient. A corresponding increase in severe wind potential may occur this evening, and potentially persist into western/northern Oklahoma overnight. Portions of the south-central High Plains will be reevaluated for a wind-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks. ....Southern Georgia and Northern/Eastern Florida... A front will settle southeastward across southern Georgia into northern Florida today, with a seasonally moist air mass and ample insolation to the south of the front across the Florida Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon near the front, as well as near the east coast sea breeze. In the presence of moderate pre-convective buoyancy, a modestly strong belt of westerlies aloft, associated with the broader eastern states upper trough, may contribute to some sustained/semi-organized storms. A few of these afternoon storms could produced locally damaging downbursts and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Guyer/Smith.. 06/09/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .