Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jun 09 2023 07:30:05 ACUS03 KWNS 090730 SWODY3 SPC AC 090729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ....SUMMARY... An organized cluster of thunderstorms may evolve across parts of the Ozark Plateau and lower Ohio Valley into Mid South vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening. Initial storms may pose a risk for severe hail, before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard. ....Synopsis... By Sunday, the prevailing split flow will include a series of slow moving/quasi-stationary mid-level lows, in various states of evolution. The most prominent circulation appears likely to stall to the east of the Canadian Maritimes, in association with a deep occluding offshore surface cyclone. Another is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, to the east-southeast of a lingering, but less prominent, mid-level high centered near the Montana/Saskatchewan border. A third low is generally forecast to broaden and weaken while migrating inland of the southern California coast toward the southern Great Basin. ....Southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley... Considerable spread exists within/among the various model output, but the interior U.S. circulation likely will be accompanied by another intrusion of seasonably mild and dry air through much of the northern and central Great Plains and upper/middle Mississippi Valley, and at least modest surface cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley, by late Sunday night. Ahead of the cold front, near the southwestern periphery of the developing mid-level low and the northeastern periphery of building mid-level ridging, a seasonably moist boundary-layer may become characterized by moderate to large CAPE beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates by late Sunday afternoon. Coupled with at least modest strengthening of westerly to northwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, it appears that the environment could support the evolution of one or two consolidating and organizing clusters of thunderstorms posing increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts through the late afternoon and evening. ....Parts of southeast Colorado and adjacent New Mexico... Beneath strengthening, difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow, moistening easterly upslope low-level flow may become at least marginally conducive to scattered strong thunderstorm development, including a couple of supercell structures late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Kerr.. 06/09/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .