Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 09 2023 01:09:03

AWUS01 KWNH 090108
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-090700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0447
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
908 PM EDT Thu Jun 08 2023

Areas affected...eastern ND into northeastern SD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090106Z - 090700Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of eastern ND and perhaps northeastern SD over the next
3-6 hours. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and localized totals of 1-3
inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...0030Z radar/satellite observations showed a poorly
organized line of thunderstorms over northern ND (west-east
orientation), preceded by an outflow boundary. The leading line of
convection has degraded into 3 or 4 stronger cells over the past
few hours, with the remaining cells maintaining intensity,
connected by lighter rain in-between. Another poorly organized
cluster was observed ~50 miles east of Bismarck with similar
weakening trends as a whole with the line but with stronger cells
noted in Wells and Kidder counties. 00Z SPC mesoanalysis data
showed a relatively narrow axis of uninhibited instability over
eastern ND with 500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and ~2100 J/kg on the ABR
sounding.

These two quasi-organized areas of thunderstorms are expected to
continue advancing toward the south/southeast over the next few
hours, into 5-10 kt of southeasterly 850 mb flow, following the
deeper-layer mean northwest flow and Corfidi vectors. Some local
strengthening of 850 mb flow is expected overnight, which should
aid southeastward progression, but before that happens, additional
development of slow moving cells will be possible within the
unstable airmass. Cell mergers and brief training could allow for
1-2 in/hr rates and localized totals between 1 and 3 inches prior
to 07Z. There are some hints from recent runs of the HRRR that
nocturnal development will continue in some form after 06Z in
southeastern ND/eastern SD, so that region will have to be
monitored for additional MPDs as needed.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4vWHUZ9WaXrZOxMUrHhSPt1lqi8KB7RK_KWoitu2r-OUUEx2RJC5tHpEFSMRl-xvwa9j=
FpsT05stDBujSzqPnzYiLbM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   48399924 48259842 47989780 47429745 46639739=20
            45439768 45109865 45379950 46639987 47479953=20
            48259995=20

=3D =3D =3D
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