Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 08 2023 23:35:30

AWUS01 KWNH 082335
FFGMPD
MTZ000-090330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0446
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 PM EDT Thu Jun 08 2023

Areas affected...portions of east-central/southeastern MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 082330Z - 090330Z

SUMMARY...An increased flash flood threat is expected for portions
of east-central/southeastern MT over the next few hours. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 inches in 30-60 minutes are expected on a localized
basis.

DISCUSSION...A combination of visible satellite and local KBLX
radar imagery showed a recent uptick in thunderstorm coverage over
east-central/southeastern MT over the past hour, near/north of
Billings and just south of the I-94 corridor. Numerous outflow
boundaries were noted from the convection with varying directional
movement, but a larger outflow boundary was identified in eastern
Rosebud County, MT, southward into eastern Sheridan County, WY,
tracking toward the west, forcing a broken line of thunderstorms
along it. The environment was characterized by varying CAPE but
23Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed roughly 1000 to 2000 J/kg across
a good portion of the discussion area.

Enhanced convergence with the advancement and collision of outflow
boundaries should support the development of new thunderstorm
cells along with a relative increase in the easterly low level
wind behind the outflow boundary translating westward along the
MT/WY border. The increased low level convergence coupled with
diffluent flow aloft, should allow for an increase in cell
coverage, some containing high rainfall rates of 1-2 inches in
30-60 minutes over the next 1-3 hours. Given the 1 to 2 week
rainfall anomalies across this region of MT, some areas of flash
flooding appear likely, but coverage may be somewhat limited.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!96DdK1Xa3l45NWUtd3ZtHyfo0djgo8GEfRCx_1XzKFyUCbTUmGgS1Kq7BBc--A5lkie1=
dw7EU92Yp8bx3pHVzn1mv7c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   47700976 47560822 47200684 46730592 45720576=20
            45080597 45050696 45250794 45500883 46161000=20
            47051046 47591038=20

=3D =3D =3D
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