Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 08 2023 20:00:33 ACUS01 KWNS 082000 SWODY1 SPC AC 081958 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX... ....SUMMARY... The most likely corridor for large hail and isolated damaging winds will be across a portion of southeast Texas into early evening. ....South central/southeast TX through this evening... Convection is ongoing from just east of San Antonio to north/northeast of College Station. The somewhat stronger vertical shear and potential for more organized/supercell storms with large hail will remain from the San Antonio cluster southeastward, in association with a remnant MCV. Farther northeast, weaker vertical shear suggests more pulse-type storms into southeast TX, where isolated wind damage and large hail may occur for the next few hours. ....ND area this afternoon through tonight... Convection is forming this afternoon along a wind shift/front across west central ND. Flow is weak over this area near the midlevel ridge, but moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg) and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will support the threat for occasional strong-severe gusts and isolated large hail with multicell clusters that will spread slowly east/southeastward through tonight. ....South GA and vicinity the remainder of the afternoon... Storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated, given weak forcing for ascent and relatively dry midlevel air. However, a few storms remain possible along a weak front from southern SC across south GA and far north FL. Moderate buoyancy and rather weak vertical shear will primarily support multicell storms with a marginal wind threat. Slightly stronger vertical shear is present near the front across southern SC, where isolated large hail may also occur. ...Thompson.. 06/08/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023/ ....Southeast TX... An MCV over central TX will track southeast off the Upper TX Gulf Coast this evening. Nearly full insolation will occur ahead of the MCV coincident with upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points which persist north of an MCS that tracked across Deep South TX earlier this morning. This should yield a pocket of moderately large buoyancy with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg at peak heating. Consensus of CAM guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms should develop ahead of the MCV, with the 12Z WRF-NSSL indicative of at least scattered coverage which would typically be expected with an MCV. Guidance generally indicates slight mid-level warming in forecast soundings which may explain the tendency for more isolated coverage in most CAMs. A belt of enhanced mid-level northwesterlies from 30-40 kt should be relegated to south-central TX and the Middle/Lower TX Gulf Coast. A relatively confined overlap of favorable CAPE/shear space should occur in a portion of southeast TX. With minimal 0-3 km SRH, updraft rotation should be limited to the mid-levels. Main threat will be large hail along with isolated damaging winds until convection moves offshore this evening. ....South GA/SC and north FL... A slowly southward-sagging surface cold front will serve as a focus for at least isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon across parts of the Southeast. West-southwesterly low-level flow will persist ahead of the front similar to yesterday, but mid-level westerlies will be stronger today owing to a jet arcing across the southern Appalachians and the NC/SC border area. This should compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates and may yield small to marginally severe hail over the Lower Savannah Valley. Otherwise, with nearly full insolation, steep low-level lapse rates will support potential for a primary threat of strong to marginally severe microbursts. ....Lower Mid-Atlantic Coast... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should persist through the mid-afternoon until lower-topped, frontal-forced thunderstorms move offshore. A pocket of steeper 850-600 mb lapse rates in conjunction with an elongated hodograph in the upper portion of the buoyancy profile will support small to marginally severe hail production. This may enhance downdraft potential over the Delmarva peninsula where boundary-layer heating is relatively greater and yield locally strong surface gusts despite weak low-level flow. For additional information, please see MCD 952. ....Northern Great Plains... An upper ridge persists across the central Great Plains northwestward into eastern MT. With 60-64 F boundary-layer dew points, an arc of moderately large buoyancy with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop from parts of eastern MT to the eastern Dakotas. Deep-layer shear will be rather weak, especially within the axis of the mid-level ridge, suggesting that slow-moving, pulse storms will dominate. 15-25 kt effective bulk shear may develop across parts of central to eastern ND where light low-level southeasterlies persist beneath modest mid to upper-level west-northwesterlies. In this regime, sporadic occurrences of isolated severe wind gusts and large hail should peak in the late afternoon to early evening, before waning after sunset. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. 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