Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0954
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 08 2023 18:49:32

ACUS11 KWNS 081849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081849=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-082045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0954
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023

Areas affected...Central and eastern North Dakota into portions of
far northern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081849Z - 082045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and hail possible
through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating has allowed erosion of MLCIN across
portions of central and eastern North Dakota with MLCAPE approaching
1000-2500 J/kg. Thunderstorm activity has begun to increase across
north central North Dakota as this has occurred. Thunderstorm
activity is expected to continue to increase through the afternoon
across portions of central North Dakota tracking southward through
the early evening. Weak deep layer shear (around 15-20 kts) will
likely keep storms pulse in nature, with a few instances of severe
hail and gusty winds. Shear may become somewhat more favorable
(around 20-25 kts) across east-central North Dakota through the
afternoon. Given the marginal and likely isolated nature of the
threat, a watch is unlikely to be needed.

...Thornton/Grams.. 06/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9-RMzYFksA8N3Tt1LDoNiQlS2CB4DeXHOZ_tFk1akobGnoOFgNAuhiOpxByBIvJxLULTfRa-0=
UCeatGf7Dk9JWm4bk8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   47160152 47660208 47890230 48660281 49020279 49010043
            48540003 48349994 47699946 47419890 47089853 46689825
            45999817 45779881 45689943 45630002 45650069 45700089
            47160152=20


=3D =3D =3D
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