Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 08 2023 18:46:32 ACUS03 KWNS 081846 SWODY3 SPC AC 081845 Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARK-LA-MISS... AMENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR EVOLUTION OF EARLY CONVECTION ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should occur Saturday across parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Miss. ....Updated discussion... A storm cluster and associated MCV are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of central OK Saturday morning. The convection will likely persist through the day while spreading east-southeastward toward the ArkLaTex and the Ark-La-Miss regions, with an accompanying threat for damaging winds. Outflow with the MCS will likely spread southward into TX, and potentially provide a focus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Storms along the outflow, especially if it can stall by mid-late afternoon, will have the potential to be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail. The potential for additional diurnal development in northwest OK and KS, in the wake of the morning convection, is highly uncertain. Given background shortwave ridging, plus subsidence in the wake of the MCV, the potential for severe storms appears limited at best. --Previous discussion below issued at 0730z-- ....Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... Associated with modest low-level warm advection, mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning across parts of OK towards the Ozarks. With steep mid-level lapse rates present and ample MUCAPE available, this convection may pose an isolated threat for severe hail Saturday morning. This activity may produce an outflow boundary, which could provide a focus for renewed thunderstorm development across parts of OK Saturday afternoon. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to continue moving eastward across the southern Plains through the period. A surface dryline should mix eastward across TX by late Saturday afternoon. This boundary should also provide a focus for severe thunderstorms. Convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain through the day due to the influence of morning thunderstorms, and weak large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough. Regardless, ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass east of the dryline should foster moderate to strong MLCAPE by late afternoon. Any convection that can initiate along the dryline will likely become severe. Somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels and steep mid-level lapse rates should support an isolated threat for very large hail with any discrete thunderstorms that initially develop. The potential for one or more convective clusters/MCSs is less clear, but still possible. Some guidance suggests that robust thunderstorms will develop on the southern flank of the morning convection, and subsequently spread east-southeastward across the ArkLaTex vicinity and eventually lower MS Valley. A destabilizing airmass ahead of this possible MCS would support some threat for damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded eastward to account for this potential. Otherwise, discrete thunderstorms may grow upscale into an MCS Saturday evening as a low-level jet modestly strengthens. This convection may also pose a threat for severe/damaging winds as it moves eastward. ...Thompson.. 06/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .