Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 08 2023 17:31:01 ACUS02 KWNS 081730 SWODY2 SPC AC 081729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... A few severe outflow gusts will be possible late Friday afternoon/evening from southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. ....Great Plains Friday afternoon into Friday night... A midlevel trough will persist over the Northeast, with an associated threat for diurnal convection with the midlevel cold pool. Farther west, weak ridging aloft will persist over the High Plains, with a weak trough over the Great Basin. A weak southern stream will remain across NM, and an embedded speed maximum will eject northeastward by Friday evening. Lingering low-level moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will result in moderate buoyancy across much of the Plains tomorrow afternoon. A somewhat better focus for thunderstorm development will be in the immediate lee of the higher terrain across southeast CO tomorrow afternoon/evening, downstream from the weak ejecting trough. The storm environment will support a mix of multicell clusters and marginal supercells initially, given MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near 30 kt. Storms should grow upscale during the evening through outflow interactions, and a cluster is expected to move southeastward toward southwest KS/OK Panhandle early Friday night. The strongest storms in the cluster could produce a few severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph, along with isolated large hail. The storms will spread southeastward overnight into the main body of OK, though they should weaken during the early morning hours. Otherwise, isolated strong-severe storms may occur farther south along the dryline into parts of west TX, though storm coverage is a bit in question. Farther north, vertical shear will generally remain weak. However, there is the potential for an MCV to emerge across eastern SD early in the day, which will then move southward through the afternoon. Isolated strong-severe gusts and large hail may occur with the strongest storms with the MCV. ....FL tomorrow afternoon... A stalled front and local sea breeze circulations will help focus widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development Friday afternoon across north FL and along the Atlantic coast in the westerly flow regime aloft. Moderate buoyancy and slightly enhanced vertical shear will favor a mix of multicell clusters and marginal supercells, with an attendant threat for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts and large hail. ...Thompson.. 06/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .