Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0953
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 08 2023 17:16:31

ACUS11 KWNS 081716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081715=20
TXZ000-081815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 081715Z - 081815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds will increase
through the afternoon across portions of central Texas and spread
southeastward toward the coast by evening.  A severe thunderstorm
watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Surface-based convection is beginning to develop ahead
of a remnant MCV left behind from yesterday's convection.  With
clear skies downstream and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s,
destabilization is occurring rapidly with over 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
estimated by the latest mesoanalysis.  The deep-layer shear is also
maximized across this area with around 40 knots estimated by local
VWPs.  Given sufficient shear and instability, supercells capable of
producing large hail will be possible.  Rising heights/temperatures
aloft may limit overall storm coverage, but convective trends will
be monitored for the possibility of a severe thunderstorm watch.

...Jirak/Grams.. 06/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8StSYbwFKNG0wcVXrOHJSteqlBT-v1u4Asc_iDsJedu6oK66gU-p3LXCOo5kipKQ8-o3QdpaS=
i2IXafgI4d1YtGxd6A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30329897 30509841 30929779 30839712 30329660 29849633
            29339628 28799640 28729684 28389767 28489813 29089914
            29689957 30289955 30329897=20


=3D =3D =3D
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