Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0951
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 08 2023 05:36:27

ACUS11 KWNS 080536
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080535=20
TXZ000-080730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0951
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023

Areas affected...parts of south TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 080535Z - 080730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A bow echo over northern Mexico will cross the Rio Grande
around 130am CDT (0630 UTC) and pose an isolated risk for severe
gusts (60-70 mph) tonight as it moves east-southeastward around 40
kt.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a mature bow echo located 45 mi
south-southwest of Del Rio moving quickly east-southeast at 40 kt.=20
Surface observational sites ahead of the squall line show
temperatures in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s.=20
Despite nocturnal cooling that has occurred this evening and
appreciable convective inhibition, steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8
deg C/km) and moderate buoyancy in the presence of strong effective
shear, will aid in storm longevity as this cluster moves into
portions of south TX tonight.  Given the organized character of the
thunderstorm complex with an implied northern bookend vortex, strong
to severe gusts on an isolated basis seem plausible near the Rio
Grande during the next few hours.  The expected coverage of the
severe risk and some uncertainty in the timing/location of the
squall line's decay phase will likely preclude a small severe
thunderstorm watch issuance.  Nonetheless, convective trends will be
monitored.

...Smith.. 06/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9feQNfYnaXl2Xke5NqMsbC0DJ6aumMQmpZozHfgn38JNIkaZwDRIkJdRY3MLqhspMaQxl9EfG=
-QYCM_qqodBzIBTLBM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29100066 29130058 28940017 27979910 27369915 27279970
            28760087 29100066=20


=3D =3D =3D
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