Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 08 2023 06:00:28 ACUS02 KWNS 080600 SWODY2 SPC AC 080558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern/central Plains Friday through Friday night, and over portions of Florida and far southern Georgia Friday afternoon. Large hail and strong to damaging winds should be the main threats. ....Southern/Central Plains... A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough should move from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern High Plains through Friday night. This trough should partially suppress upper ridging over the southern/central Plains. A weak surface low should develop across southeastern CO by late Friday afternoon, with a dryline extending south-southeastward from this low across west TX. Thunderstorms are forecast to initially develop Friday afternoon across the higher terrain of central/eastern CO and NM as modest ascent preceding the shortwave trough overspreads these area. As this activity spreads eastward, it should encounter a moderately unstable airmass east of the dryline and gradually strengthen. Although mid-level flow is forecast to remain fairly modest, it should still be sufficient for multicell clusters to form and pose an isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts as activity spreads eastward into KS, the OK/TX Panhandles, and eventually western/central OK Friday evening through Friday night. A more conditional threat for thunderstorm initiation exists with southward extent along the dryline in west TX. Still, some guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms may develop and be sustained. If they do, then large hail and severe wind gusts may occur. ....Florida/Far Southern Georgia... A weak southern-stream upper trough is forecast to advance across the Gulf of Mexico and FL on Friday. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level flow should accompany this feature, supporting around 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear. Any thunderstorms that can develop Friday afternoon along/south of a weak front in far southern GA/north FL, or along the Atlantic sea breeze, may be capable of producing isolated damaging winds and hail through the early evening. ....Northern Rockies/Plains... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop Friday across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains. Generally weak flow beneath upper ridging should continue for most locations, which should tend to limit thunderstorm organization and intensity. Still, some strong thunderstorms may occur where moderate instability can develop. This appears more likely across parts of eastern MT into SD along/south of a weak surface front. Have opted to not introduce low severe hail/wind probabilities across this area due to the weak deep-layer shear forecast. ...Gleason.. 06/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .