Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 07 2023 23:02:11

AWUS01 KWNH 072302
FFGMPD
TXZ000-080445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0442
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 PM EDT Wed Jun 07 2023

Areas affected...Trans Pecos / Big Bend region of TX into western
Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072259Z - 080445Z

SUMMARY...Localized areas of flash flooding will be possible as
thunderstorms, some slow moving, advance eastward and merge across
the Big Bend Country into the western Edwards Plateau. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr and localized totals near 3 inches will be
possible through 05Z.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms were observed on infrared
satellite imagery over portions of the Trans Pecos region of
western TX as well as into northern Chihuahua, just across the Rio
Grande at 2230Z. KMAF radar imagery showed a mixture of multicell
and supercell modes with 10-20 kt average motion but with some
repeating cells as storms generally track from west to east around
a mid-level ridge axis. SPC mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed 1000
to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE across the region, increasing toward the east
with a maximum near the Rio Grande River (vicinity of Val Verde
County). Precipitable water values increased from just shy of 1
inch in Big Bend National Park to 1.5 inches along the Middle Rio
Grande, average for early June.

Recent radar and satellite trends of increasing coverage suggest
thunderstorms coverage will continue to increase over the next
hour or so, prior to a diurnal increase in 850 mb winds from the
southeast, forecast to range between 15 and 25 kt by the RAP near
and just north of the Middle Rio Grande. As storms merge and
cluster, recent cycles of the HRRR suggest that congealing into a
small MCS will be possible in the 03-06Z time frame as translation
into the Edwards Plateau occurs. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will
be possible with some of the slower moving storms along with brief
training and repeating of cells, possibly supporting rainfall
totals near 3 inches before clearing occurs from west to east.
Given some lower FFG values in Big Bend and to the east near the
western Edwards Plateau, localized flash flooding will be possible.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-n0W92fCWroIeE0Md9FNOogyqPR0nQGW2f0AOGBfEGr2iCZR-7FtnMmRLQm7Rb_B32Zz=
fKBJYhNZ0D0SFFCNlm9ZhJQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31220428 31130329 30920167 30700084 30150056=20
            29830086 29550111 29510157 29650205 29480256=20
            28980298 28990358 29420422 30050473 30830481=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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