Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0947
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 07 2023 19:44:24

ACUS11 KWNS 071944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071944=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-072145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0947
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South
Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071944Z - 072145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity has developed along the high terrain
in New Mexico as well as in the vicinity of an MCV located across
the Texas Plains this afternoon. A few stronger storms may produce
gusty winds and hail this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Across eastern New Mexico, weak flow with northern
extent has yielded shear values generally under 20 kts. Steep
mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km and surface heating is likely
to allow a modest increase in MLCAPE by the late afternoon will
result in potential for multi-cell clusters that may briefly produce
severe hail. Forecast soundings have a classic "inverted V", with
deeply mixed boundary layer conditions and with dew point spreads
around 40 F. This will support a risk of instances of severe wind as
well.=20

Across the Texas Panhandle into the South Plains, a remnant MCV will
provide increased flow and shear for thunderstorm organization
through the afternoon. Surface objective analysis shows MLCAPE
around 500-1000 J/kg nudging northward into the Texas Panhandle
where effective shear is around 20 kts. A few instances of severe
hail (some exceeding 1 inch) and gusty winds will be possible.

Given the small spatial and temporal nature of these threats, a
watch is unlikely to be considered for either region.

...Thornton/Grams.. 06/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6LKn_lhegK_wSzWMzHu8Mo5nMRUs7ZCPJaw767kobt05FoH1BpfbqmMiOQozDAjgsca16B5TA=
4z0gA0G1URlsH6n91k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   33290530 33860522 34740485 35440457 36350439 36710410
            36740337 36450260 34910104 34590081 34390069 34120060
            33890073 33440100 33260115 33100124 32820176 32700240
            32500285 32330318 32130363 32090402 32060437 32040454
            32040486 32090509 32110520 32110522 33290530=20


=3D =3D =3D
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