Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0946
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 07 2023 19:23:51

ACUS11 KWNS 071923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071923=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-072130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0946
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

Areas affected...portions of coastal SC to far southeast NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071923Z - 072130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally
damaging gusts and hail through early evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing this afternoon in
a weak to moderately unstable airmass ahead of a surface cold front.
Poor midlevel lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture are
limiting stronger destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow also
remains rather lackluster. However, a narrow corridor of effective
shear values near 25-30 kt is evident across northern coastal
portions of SC to adjacent coastal NC. Coupled with very steep
low-level lapse rates, this may be sufficient for a few cells with
transient organization. Strong downbursts may accompany this
activity into early evening as convection shifts east toward, and
eventually offshore from, the coast. Relatively cool temperatures
aloft (around -11 C at 500 mb per 12z CHS RAOB) may support small
hail with any more intense updrafts. However, given modest
instability, poor midlevel lapse rates, and marginal vertical shear,
longevity of intense cores may be limited. A severe thunderstorm
watch is not expected at this time.

...Leitman/Grams.. 06/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9WbkUOkpcpbwtGtzETdZe_e3gxFXE5cEX_ZBscO0eYICYOHyw1PVp4DMMCd7Qsu2rtsZSBVgb=
xJyZuQAwP-5AARZzF8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   32577994 33118071 33678048 34237963 34357905 34197856
            33977835 33427847 33117864 32947883 32647930 32577994=20


=3D =3D =3D
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