Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 07 2023 18:01:38

AWUS01 KWNH 071801
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-080000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0440
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 07 2023

Areas affected...Countinental Divide and Bighorn Mountains of
Central CO and WY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071800Z - 080000Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving storms are developing over burn scars
resulting in widely scattered flash flooding likely with potential
localized debris flows.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have been developing over the past
few hours over the mountains along and west of the Continental
Divide in CO up to the Bighorn Mountains of WY. Hourly rainfall
rates have been approaching 1 inch/hour, which is close to
exceeding local FFG. SPC Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE values between
1,500 and 2,500 J/kg, which in addition to PWATs of 3/4 inches
across the area are supporting convection along many of the
mountains. Due to very weak steering flow, the storms are very
slow-moving, and are developing over various burn scars. The heavy
rain on the burn scars locally depress FFG, making flash flooding
possible with the heaviest and most persistent storms over much of
CO and WY, with flash flooding most likely with those storms that
develop over burn scars.

Through the afternoon, the storms are expected to develop upscale
into an MCS, particularly over northern CO and into southern WY,
containing storms locally producing rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour. This scenario is widely anticipated in much of the CAMs
guidance. This will further increase the flash flooding risk,
especially going into this evening.

Wegman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!64X0ObbW877OwfiGNXEzHw_DXZHLeohZqT0Jb_SUuWUI1_zJvy-s2ABLV3OZnMA2yMWW=
Ye3m2Vkeh_tNzlmKkVluK98$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...BYZ...CYS...GJT...PUB...RIW...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44860725 44640683 42760566 40570525 39140501=20
            38450544 38560722 39940818 42730842 44680779=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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