Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 07 2023 17:07:24 ACUS02 KWNS 071707 SWODY2 SPC AC 071706 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS...THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Thursday across parts of Texas, the Southeast, Dakotas, and northern Rockies/High Plains. Isolated damaging winds and hail should be the main threats. ....Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected over the CONUS on Thursday. A deep upper-level trough may amplify slightly over the East, as an attendant cold front moves through parts of the Southeast. An upper ridge will remain in place from western Canada into parts of the central/northern Great Plains. A mid/upper-level low over the Great Basin is forecast to gradually weaken and move slowly northward within a larger-scale trough covering much of the West. Multiple embedded vorticity maxima (some convectively induced) may affect portions of the West into the southern Plains. ....Texas... Rich low-level moisture will remain in place across parts of central/south TX, and moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop Thursday afternoon, near and south of any outflow boundaries that were generated by antecedent convection. Strong thunderstorm development will be possible Thursday afternoon, with initial activity expected near any remnant boundaries, before storms potentially spread south-southeastward with time into the evening, potentially reaching as far as deep south TX before weakening. Generally weak midlevel northwesterly flow will support 20-30 kt of effective shear, sufficient for a few strong multicell clusters capable of isolated hail and localized severe gusts. The potential influence of any MCVs on flow fields across the region remains uncertain, but any modest increase in deep-layer shear compared to what is currently expected may result in greater severe hail/wind potential than what is reflected in this outlook. ....Southeast... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop along/south of the southward-moving cold front Thursday afternoon across parts of the Southeast. Stronger mid/upper-level flow will remain displaced north of the front, but adequate effective shear (generally 20-30 kt) may support some modest organization with storms that develop along/ahead of the front during the afternoon/evening. Locally damaging gusts will likely be the primary hazard within a rather warm and well-mixed environment, though isolated hail will also be possible. ....Central/eastern Dakotas... A narrow low-level moist plume associated with a remnant frontal zone may drift slightly westward across the eastern/central Dakotas on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy will likely develop within this moist plume during the afternoon, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon. Despite generally weak deep-layer flow, modest midlevel northerlies will support 20-30 kt of effective shear, supporting the potential for a few organized multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two. The strongest storms will be capable of isolated hail and localized severe gusts as convection moves generally southward into the evening. ....Montana into adjacent portions of northern WY/ID and eastern WA... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across MT into adjacent portions of the interior Northwest and northern Rockies on Thursday, to the north of a gradually weakening mid/upper-level cyclone over the Great Basin. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain relatively weak, but isolated hail and severe gusts may be possible with the strongest storms, especially where stronger heating/destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates can occur prior to storm arrival. ...Dean.. 06/07/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .