Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 07 2023 16:29:51 ACUS01 KWNS 071629 SWODY1 SPC AC 071628 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS OF THE CONUS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with wind and hail will be possible in several areas of the country: the southern High Plains, the South Carolina vicinity, south to east Florida, the interior Northwest, and the eastern Dakotas. ....Southern High Plains... A southern-stream upper jet will gradually expand east across much of northern Mexico. Within the left-exit region of this jet, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of the TX Trans-Pecos and eastern NM. Proximity of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge will yield weak deep-layer shear north of the Trans-Pecos, with the latter seeing strengthening flow during the late afternoon into the evening. Here, a couple supercells should form with a primary threat of isolated large hail before clustering towards the Rio Grande. Farther north, loosely organized multicell clusters should dominate with sporadic occurrences of severe hail and wind possible through early tonight. ....Southeast... Scattered thunderstorm development appears to be commencing across the south to eastern FL peninsula, with additional storms likely to form later this afternoon near a southward-sagging cold front in the SC vicinity. Belts of 30-40 kt west-southwesterlies will persist across central to south FL ahead of a low-amplitude trough over the east-central Gulf and along the frontal zone to the south of the amplified trough across the Northeast. While low-level flow will be weak over FL and predominately westerly over the SC vicinity, adequate effective bulk shear will exist for transient supercell and multicell structures capable of isolated damaging winds and lower-end severe hail. ....Northeast CA to southwest MT... A weakening upper low will drift northeast from southeast CA into southern NV. This will result in gradual decay of the mid-level wind field. However, adequate speed shear from the mid to upper levels should still support semi-organized multicell clustering later this afternoon, mainly across southern to eastern OR and the southern half of ID. Similar to yesterday, isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threat, with small to marginally severe hail also possible. ....Eastern Dakotas... A mid to upper-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the central Dakotas. A pocket of moderate buoyancy should develop across a portion of the eastern Dakotas where boundary-layer dewpoints can hold from 60-64 F. While deep-layer flow will remain weak, directional change with height from light low-level south-southeasterlies to weak mid-level northerlies may yield a strip of 15-20 kt effective bulk shear. A few marginally severe wind and hail events from pulse to weakly organized multicells remain possible during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Grams/Thornton.. 06/07/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .