Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 07 2023 07:31:49 ACUS03 KWNS 070731 SWODY3 SPC AC 070730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the southern/central Plains on Friday, and over portions of Florida and southern Georgia. ....Southern/Central Plains... A southern-stream shortwave trough should move eastward from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern High Plains through Friday night. This trough should help erode the persistent upper ridge across the southern Plains, and mid/upper-level flow should also gradually strengthen through the period. A weak surface low is forecast to develop over southeastern CO by early Friday evening, with a dryline extending south-southeastward from this low across the southern High Plains. There is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding convective initiation along the dryline through late Friday afternoon, as modest ascent associated with the shortwave trough will probably not overspread the surface warm sector until Friday evening/night. Still, moderate instability and marginally sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across parts of the southern/central High Plains to support some organized convection and related hail/wind threat. For now, have confined the Marginal Risk to locations where confidence is greatest in robust convection developing late Friday afternoon through Friday night. A more conditional threat for severe thunderstorms will exist farther south into west/central TX, but too much uncertainty regarding convective initiation and cap strength currently exists to include low severe probabilities any farther south. ....Florida/Southern Georgia... A weak southern-stream upper trough should advance eastward from the Gulf of Mexico across FL on Friday. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level flow should accompany this feature, supporting around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear. Any thunderstorms that can develop Friday afternoon along/south of a weak front in southern GA/north FL, or along the Atlantic sea breeze, may be capable of producing isolated damaging winds and hail. ...Gleason.. 06/07/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .