Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 07 2023 05:45:49

ACUS01 KWNS 070545
SWODY1
SPC AC 070544

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHWEST...NORTHERN PLAINS...LOWER TO
MID MISSOURI VALLEY...CAROLINAS...AND FLORIDA....

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with strong winds and
hail, will be possible today across parts of the southern High
Plains, Northwest, northern Plains, lower to mid Missouri Valley,
Carolinas, and Florida.

....Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
A cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across much of the
eastern U.S., with an upper-level low located in northern New
England. At the surface, a trough will deepen along the Atlantic
Seaboard as a cold front advances southward through the southern
Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the
mid to upper 60s F across much of the Southeast into the eastern
Carolinas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop this afternoon along the surface trough. Additional storms
may form near sea-breeze boundaries in the coastal Carolinas, and
along the east coast of Florida. Steep low-level lapse rates near
peak heating may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with
the stronger multicells.

....Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Northern Plains...
A quasi-stationary front will be located from the eastern Dakotas
south-southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley today. Along and
to the east of the boundary, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid
60s F will contribute to a somewhat narrow corridor of moderate
instability by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development is expected during the mid to late afternoon as
instability and low-level convergence become maximized near the
front. Marginally severe winds and hail will be possible, especially
in areas were low-level lapse rates become the steepest.

....Southern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge will remain in place today across the southern
High Plains. Beneath the ridge, warm surface temperatures and steep
lapse rates will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon.
Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of eastern
New Mexico and far West Texas, with the storms moving slowly into
the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. The
instability, along with steep lapse rates, will likely support a
threat for strong winds and hail.

....Northwest...
An upper-level low will move slowly northeastward into the Sierra
Nevada of eastern California today. To the north and east of the
low, mid-level flow will be from the south and southeast across much
of the Intermountain West. Scattered thunderstorms will likely
develop this afternoon in the higher terrain, and in the lower
elevations where temperatures sufficiently warm. Steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will likely support a marginal wind-damage and
hail threat.

...Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/07/2023

$$

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