Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 07 2023 01:10:24

AWUS01 KWNH 070110
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-070700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0439
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 PM EDT Tue Jun 06 2023

Areas affected...central/eastern NM into western TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070109Z - 070700Z

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm intensity is anticipated
over portions of central/eastern NM and possibly the far western
TX Panhandle overnight. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr and
localized totals of 2-4 inches are expected through 07Z, likely
leading to localized areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional mosaic radar imagery aver the southern High
Plains at 0050Z showed a number areas with active convection with
three main related outflow boundaries. First was associated with a
quickly advancing convective line which was passing through Otero
County, NM into far western TX, second was in central NM over the
Sandia Mountains and third over southeastern CO into northeastern
NM. SPC mesoanalysis data and the AMA sounding from 00Z showed a
pocket of roughly 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE extending from the TX
Panhandle into east-central NM.

As these outflow boundaries continue to advance, it appears they
will merge in the vicinity of east-central NM and the instability
max. Given the recent history of thunderstorms over CO and NM with
MRMS-derived rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr, it appears high
rainfall rates will continue to be likely over east-central CO as
outflows merge and new convection develops. Congealing of storms
into a broader cluster appears probable in the 04-06Z time frame.
Given very wet antecedent conditions with 7-day rainfall anomalies
over 600 percent in several locations, areas of flash flooding
appear likely from localized totals of 2-4 inches through 07Z.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8UKUq2ebtfb6Q6gGymQO0ERpIVj6JWSbv-VCkUC9JywDvBGEHSkhzcok_Kf4mYkxBuKB=
sSPxk_C3rdj3M_l86AuPExY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36170548 35910499 35920418 35860320 35500277=20
            34870259 34300280 33760336 33330438 33220549=20
            33260626 34080649 35590618 36000590=20

=3D =3D =3D
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