Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 07 2023 00:56:47

ACUS01 KWNS 070056
SWODY1
SPC AC 070055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with hail and strong
gusty winds, will continue for another hour or so in parts of the
Rio Grande Valley of southeast Mexico and far West Texas.

....Rio Grande Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery has an upper-level ridge over central
New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of
the ridge from central New Mexico southward into far West Texas. At
the surface, a 1001 mb low is located in far southeast Arizona.
Upslope easterly flow is present to the east of the low across much
of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Within this airmass, surface
dewpoints of 45 to 50 F and temperatures in the 80s F are
contributing to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Although 0-6 km shear is
very weak, 0-3 km lapse rates on the 00Z sounding from Albuquerque
are near 10 C/km. This thermodynamic environment should be
sufficient for marginally severe multicells over the next hour.
Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible.

...Broyles.. 06/07/2023

$$

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